STRAT | 19 AUG 2026 | Consequence Management and the Super El Nino
In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines consequence management and warns of the risks he associates with a potential Super El Niño. Drawing on decades of work with military commands, FEMA, DHS, intelligence organizations, and state and local agencies, Kempfer traces the evolution of all-hazards consequence management and argues that critical gaps remain in disaster intelligence and decision support. He revisits lessons from Hurricane Katrina, the development and abandonment of CPG-502, and the intended role of state and local fusion centers in helping leaders understand threats, damage, and cascading consequences. Kempfer also explores California’s historic flood vulnerability, including the catastrophic storms of 1861–62, and considers what extreme precipitation could mean for infrastructure, supply chains, businesses, governments, and communities today. His central message: preparedness must go beyond assurances. Leaders need realistic assessments, integrated intelligence, mitigation planning, and action before a major disaster actually arrives unexpectedly.
Takeaways:
- Consequence management prepares organizations for natural and manmade disasters.
- Disaster intelligence provides leaders critical information for timely decisions.
- Hurricane Katrina exposed major gaps in federal disaster preparedness.
- CPG-502 sought stronger state and local disaster intelligence capabilities.
- Kempfer argues CPG-502 was never adequately implemented nationwide.
- California’s historic floods demonstrate the catastrophic potential of extreme rainfall.
- Super El Niño could severely challenge existing emergency preparedness systems.
- Businesses must prepare for workforce, infrastructure, and supply disruptions.
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