STRAT| 27 OCT 2025 | Flamingo Cruise Missiles Bring Russia Within Ukrainian Reach

On this episode of STRAT, we examine Ukraine’s FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missile — a potentially game-changing long-range weapon now entering serial production. Retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer walks through reported production rates, propulsion sourcing, warhead capabilities, and the strategic implications for Russian infrastructure and morale. We unpack claims about range, cost, and manufacturing scale; evaluate targets that suddenly fall within reach (refineries, rail chokepoints, weapons factories, command nodes); and consider how lower-cost mass production could reshape procurement and battlefield calculus. Discussion covers export and supply-chain angles, the possible US interest in the design or cost efficiencies, and political risks for Moscow if strikes reach population centers. Listeners will gain a clearer sense of how Flamingo changes deep-strike dynamics, what vulnerabilities Russia might face, and why industrialized, affordable cruise missiles matter to future warfare and deterrence. We end with policy options and scenarios.

Takeaways:

·     Flamingo (FP-5) reportedly offers ~3,000 km range — deep-strike game changer.

·     Production is scaling quickly; Ukraine moving toward mass production capacity.

·     Unit cost reportedly far lower than US Tomahawk, enabling volume use.

·     Engines and components sourced creatively — raises proliferation and supply-chain questions.

·     Warhead options include bunker buster and cluster bomb units — wide target set.

·     80–90% of Russian industrial targets could be within Flamingo range.

·     Strategic effects: strikes on refineries, rail, and weapons factories carry political risk for Moscow.

·     Wider implication: affordable cruise missiles could alter future procurement, deterrence, and escalation dynamics.

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