STRAT | July 25, 2025 | Putin’s War Gamble Nears Collapse Amid Mounting Losses

In this gripping episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer and geopolitical analyst Hal Kempfer examines what could be the unraveling of the Russian military and the Putin regime. Kempfer walks through how a failed summer offensive may signal not just battlefield defeat but a cascading collapse driven by military overreach, economic implosion, internal dissent, and mounting casualties. From wooden armor strapped to outdated tanks to the strategic impact of $400 drones disabling million-dollar assets, this is modern warfare in stark reality. Kempfer also explores the growing instability within Russia—gang-controlled towns, vigilante justice, and signs of a failing state. He dives into how Putin’s autocratic system—rooted in cronyism and Soviet-style control—may be the very cause of Russia's undoing. Listen for a sobering but sharp breakdown of how history, strategy, and current events are aligning to define what could be the final act of Putin’s rule.

Takeaways:

• Russia's 2025 summer offensive could be its last major push.
• The Russian military's outdated equipment and corruption cripple operational capability.
• Ukraine’s national mobilization and Western support have stalled Russia's advances.
• Russia’s economy is nearing collapse, with signs of recession or depression.
• Over 1 million Russian casualties mark staggering human costs.
• Makeshift wooden armor highlights desperate battlefield tactics.
• Internal dissent, mysterious deaths, and vigilante-run towns signal state breakdown.
• Putin’s autocratic model is repeating Soviet-era systemic failures.

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