STRAT | September 19, 2025 | Is Russia Acting, Reacting or Reeling?

In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer explores the expanding conflict with Russia that has grown beyond just Ukraine to now NATO, highlighting provocative actions that challenge European security and stability. From drone incursions into Poland and Romania to brazen MIG-31 flights into Estonian airspace, Russia continues to push boundaries, raising questions about intent and capability. NATO allies respond with consultations under Article 4 and new defense initiatives like Eastern Sentry and a proposed “drone wall.” Meanwhile, the U.S. decision to halt security aid to Europe sends ripples across the continent. On the economic front, Russia faces mounting sanctions, a weakening ruble, and a recession, while Putin seeks to raise taxes on the wealthy to fund the war effort. With failed offensives, staggering casualties, and a looming fall campaign, we analyze whether Russia is acting from strength or desperation—and what this means for the future of the conflict.

Takeaways:

·      Russia escalates tensions with drone incursions into NATO states.

·      MIG-31 flights into Estonian airspace highlight aerial provocations.

·      NATO responds with Article 4 consultations and “Eastern Sentry.”

·      Europe considers a “drone wall” for border security.

·      U.S. halts security aid to Europe, raising concerns.

·      Putin moves to tax wealthy Russians to fund war.

·      Sanctions and economic decline push Russia into technical recession.

·      Russia’s failed summer offensive and looming fall campaign signal desperation.

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