STRAT | Week of December 2, 2024 | Russia's Strategic Dilemma: War or Peace?

Russia's Strategic Dilemma: War or Peace?

This week on STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer (LtCol) delivers a thorough strategic assessment of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and Russia's mounting challenges. Kempfer delves into Vladimir Putin's primary motivation to maintain power, the increasing pressure on Russia's war economy, and the complexities of hybrid warfare that Russia is subtly deploying across Europe. He explains how maintaining a war economy might actually be easier for Putin than trying to impose peace. The conversation explores the implication of North Korea and China's support to Russia and how international sanctions continue to impact Russian military capabilities. Discover why the future of both Russia and Ukraine remains an unpredictable and potentially destabilizing factor in global geopolitics.

Takeaways:

• Putin’s main priority is to retain power.

• Russia’s war economy currently faces severe issues.

• Ending the war might jeopardize Putin’s regime.

• Russian economic resilience is overstated and fragile.

• Russia increasingly employs hybrid warfare tactics in Europe.

• Putin's choices are stark and limited going forward.

• Russia's economic imbalances result from sustained conflict.

• International sanctions diminish Russia’s military supply chain.

• North Korea provides essential support to Russia.

• The conflict's resolution remains highly uncertain.

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